A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
